Environmental and economic determinants of temporal dynamics of the ruminant movement network of Senegal

Garcia Garcia Katherin, Apolloni Andrea, Giacomini Alessandra, Ciss Mamadou, Fall Mathioro, Gaye Adji Mareme, Arsevska Elena, Mesdour Asma, Chevanne Etienne, Rosso Fabrizio, Cardinale Eric, Squarzoni Diaw Cécile, Seck Ismaïla, Lo Mbargou, Delabouglise Alexis. 2023. Environmental and economic determinants of temporal dynamics of the ruminant movement network of Senegal. Scientific Reports, 13:14482, 16 p.

Résumé : Our understanding of the drivers of the temporal dynamics of livestock mobility networks is currently limited, despite their significant implications for the surveillance and control of infectious diseases. We analyzed the effect of time-varying environmental and economic variables—biomass production, rainfall, livestock market prices, and religious calendar on long-distance movements of cattle and small ruminant herds in Senegal in the years 2014 and 2019. We used principal component analysis to explore the variation of the hypothesized explanatory variables in space and time and a generalized additive modelling approach to assess the effect of those variables on the likelihood of herd movement between pairs of administrative units. Contrary to environmental variables, the patterns of variation of market prices show significant differences across locations. The explanatory variables at origin had the highest contribution to the model deviance reduction. Biomass production and rainfall were found to affect the likelihood of herd movement for both species on at least 1 year. Market price at origin had a strong and consistent effect on the departure of small ruminant herds. Our study shows the potential benefits of regular monitoring of market prices for future efforts at forecasting livestock movements and associated sanitary risks.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : bovin, contrôle de maladies, petits ruminants, marché, surveillance épidémiologique, ruminant, bétail, prix, transmission des maladies, troupeau domestique, marketing, climatologie, formation des prix

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Sénégal, Sahel

Mots-clés libres : Ecological epidemiology, Risk factors, Statistics

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Auteurs et affiliations

• Garcia Garcia Katherin, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
• Apolloni Andrea, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-0228-2086
• Giacomini Alessandra, University of Wales Swansea (GBR)
• Ciss Mamadou, ISRA (SEN)
• Fall Mathioro, DSV Dakar (SEN)
• Gaye Adji Mareme, DSV Dakar (SEN)
• Arsevska Elena, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-6693-2316
• Mesdour Asma, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
• Chevanne Etienne, FAO (ITA)
• Rosso Fabrizio, FAO (ITA)
• Cardinale Eric, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3434-3541
• Squarzoni Diaw Cécile, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (REU)
• Seck Ismaïla, FAO (ITA)
• Lo Mbargou, DSV Dakar (SEN)
• Delabouglise Alexis, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-5837-7052 - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/607329/)

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