Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics

Ibanez Thomas, Bauman David, Aiba Shin-Ichiro, Arsouze Thomas, Bellingham Peter J., Birkinshaw Chris, Birnbaum Philippe, Curran Timothy J., DeWalt Saara J., Dwyer John, Fourcaud Thierry, Franklin Janet, Kohyama Takashi, Menkes Christophe, Metcalfe Daniel J., Murphy Helen, Muscarella Robert, Plunkett Gregory M., Sam Chanel, Tanner Edmund V. J., Taylor Benton N., Thompson Jill, Ticktin Tamara, Tuiwawa Marika V., Uriarte Maria, Webb Edward L., Zimmerman Jess K., Keppel Gunnar. 2024. Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics. Global Change Biology, 30 (5):e17317, 16 p.

https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17317

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Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11062523

Résumé : Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : dégât dû au vent, forêt tropicale, bois, arbre forestier, propriété physicochimique, changement climatique, cyclone, dégât, vent

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : France

Mots-clés libres : Hurricane, Biomechanics, Uprooting, Typhoon, Windfirmness, Mechanical failure, Snapping, Storm, Tree, Tropical cyclone, Tropics

Agences de financement hors UE : National Geographic Society, HORIZON EUROPE Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions, Clemson University, Fonds français pour le Pacifique, San Diego State University, Hermon Slade Foundation, Swedish Research Council, Ministry of Education- New Zealand, National Science Foundation

Projets sur financement : (EU) Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement 895799

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