A Bayesian analysis of adaptation of mountain grassland production to global change

Elleaume Nicolas, Locatelli Bruno, Oszwald Johan, Crouzat Emilie, Lavorel Sandra. 2024. A Bayesian analysis of adaptation of mountain grassland production to global change. Journal of Applied Ecology, 61 (6), n.spéc. The global energy transition: ecological impact, mitigation and restoration : 1426-1440.

Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.pg4f4qrxd / Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.83bk3jb0h

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion

Résumé : In mountains, grasslands managed for livestock production sustain local economies, culture and identity. However, their future fodder production is highly uncertain under climate change: While an extended growing season may be beneficial, more frequent and intense summer droughts could also reduce fodder quantity and quality. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes are another major driver of grassland biomass production, but combined effects of future land use transitions and climate change are rarely quantified. We modelled combined climate and LULC scenarios for grassland production of the Maurienne Valley (French Alps) by 2085. We built a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) from long-term grassland production monitoring data complemented with expert knowledge. We assessed the potential of two candidate adaptations, intensification as an incremental solution and silvopastoralism as a transformative solution to compensate combined impacts of two climate scenarios and three land use change scenarios. Total biomass production was far more sensitive to LULC than to climate scenarios. Production losses were largest under the conservation LULC scenario (−28% on average between 2020 and 2085), followed by the tourism development scenario (−7%) and the business-as-usual scenario (+3%). Climate change under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 altered the seasonality of production by increasing potential production from May to July while decreasing summer regrowth. Synthesis and applications: Changes in LULC are more decisive for global biomass production than climate change. However, under the most extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5), the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass-based protected designation of origin (PDO) production system. Only the intensification adaptation solution showed significant gains in total biomass production. Still, the silvopastoralism would require less investment compared to the intensification and have a similar efficiency when assessing the gains of biomass by the surface concerned with adaptation solutions. Along with decreased total annual production due to decreasing grassland area compounded by more extreme climate change, the seasonal shift in production and increased interannual variability threaten the current grass-based PDO production system. Further Bayesian modelling co-developed with local stakeholders and experts could greatly contribute to adaptation planning of the regional production system.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, adaptation aux changements climatiques, biomasse, intensification, utilisation des terres, altitude, évaluation de l'impact, adaptation, montagne, fertilisation, théorie Bayésienne

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Alpes

Mots-clés libres : Alpine pastoral system, Bayesian belief networks, Biomass production, Climate Change, Ecosystem services, Grasslands, Land use and land cover change

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
F40 - Écologie végétale
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 6 (2019-) - Changement climatique

Agences de financement hors UE : Agence Nationale de la Recherche

Projets sur financement : (FRA) IDEX UGA, (FRA) Trajectoires des Socio-Ecosystèmes dans les Bassins Versants d'Amérique Latine: Face à la Complexité et la Vulnérabilité dans le contexte du Changement Climatique

Auteurs et affiliations

• Elleaume Nicolas, Université Grenoble Alpes (FRA)
• Locatelli Bruno, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0003-2983-1644
• Oszwald Johan, Université de Rennes 2 (FRA)
• Crouzat Emilie, INRAE (FRA)
• Lavorel Sandra, Université Grenoble Alpes (FRA) - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/609609/)

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