Climate, altitude, yield, and varieties drive lodging in sugarcane: A random forest approach to predict risk levels on a tropical island

Christina Mathias, Heuclin Benjamin, Pilloni Raphael, Mellin Mathilde, Barau Laurent, Hoarau Jean-Yves, Dumont Thomas. 2024. Climate, altitude, yield, and varieties drive lodging in sugarcane: A random forest approach to predict risk levels on a tropical island. European Journal of Agronomy, 161:127381, 10 p.

Résumé : Lodging is a critical factor in reducing sugarcane yields worldwide, mainly due to the selection of highly productive varieties. Understanding the response of yield and lodging to the combined effects of climate, sugarcane traits, and varieties has become a priority under climate change. The aim of this study was to better understand the influence of plant characteristics, climate, and soil conditions on the trade-off between sugarcane yield and lodging on the tropical Reunion Island. Data from a 14-year experimental network run by the eRcane breeding institute were used to build random-forest models to predict sugarcane yield and lodging classes, i.e. <10 %, 10–50 %, >50 % of lodging. Yield and lodging probability were then predicted across the island using climate change projections from 2015 to 2035. Both yield and lodging were highly influenced by the variety and characteristics (height and tillering) and climatic conditions. Areas on the island at high altitudes were subject to high probability of lodging (>50 %), while in areas with high wind speed, the risk of moderate lodging (10–50 %) increased. Overall, conditions or plant characteristics that favor higher yields increased lodging probability. Nevertheless, the correlation between yield and lodging probability varied considerably depending on the variety, highlighting the importance of sugarcane characteristics in resistance to lodging. This study highlights the fact that promoting more productive varieties in recent decades has led to an increase in lodging and identified critical environments on the island prone to increased risk of lodging.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Saccharum, changement climatique, variété, rendement des cultures, verse, prévision de rendement, anatomie végétale, facteur climatique, Saccharum officinarum, altitude, canne à sucre, modèle de simulation, essai de variété

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : France, La Réunion

Mots-clés libres : Saccharum spp., Lodging, Yield, Machine Learning, Tropics

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission, European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development, European Regional Development Fund

Agences de financement hors UE : eRcane, Conseil Régional de La Réunion

Projets sur financement : (EU) Compromis en Agriculture pour un Territoire Durable

Auteurs et affiliations

• Christina Mathias, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0003-3618-756X - auteur correspondant
• Heuclin Benjamin, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-0488-032X
• Pilloni Raphael, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (FRA)
• Mellin Mathilde, eRcane (REU)
• Barau Laurent, eRcane (REU)
• Hoarau Jean-Yves, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AGAP (REU) ORCID: 0000-0001-9734-4165
• Dumont Thomas, eRcane (REU)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/610643/)

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