Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627

Marie Guillaume, Jeong Jina, Jactel Hervé, Petter Gunnar, Cailleret Maxime, McGrath Matthew J., Bastrikov Vladislav, Ghattas Josefine, Guenet Bertrand, Lansø Anne Sofie, Naudts Kim, Valade Aude, Yue Chao, Luyssaert Sebastiaan. 2024. Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627. GeoScientific Model Development, 17 (21) : 8023-8047.

Résumé : New (a)biotic conditions resulting from climate change are expected to change disturbance dynamics, such as windthrow, forest fires, droughts, and insect outbreaks, and their interactions. These unprecedented natural disturbance dynamics might alter the capability of forest ecosystems to buffer atmospheric CO2 increases, potentially leading forests to transform from sinks into sources of CO2. This study aims to enhance the ORCHIDEE land surface model to study the impacts of climate change on the dynamics of the bark beetle, Ips typographus, and subsequent effects on forest functioning. The Ips typographus outbreak model is inspired by previous work from Temperli et al. (2013) for the LandClim landscape model. The new implementation of this model in ORCHIDEE r8627 accounts for key differences between ORCHIDEE and LandClim: (1) the coarser spatial resolution of ORCHIDEE; (2) the higher temporal resolution of ORCHIDEE; and (3) the pre-existing process representation of windthrow, drought, and forest structure in ORCHIDEE. Simulation experiments demonstrated the capability of ORCHIDEE to simulate a variety of post-disturbance forest dynamics observed in empirical studies. Through an array of simulation experiments across various climatic conditions and windthrow intensities, the model was tested for its sensitivity to climate, initial disturbance, and selected parameter values. The results of these tests indicated that with a single set of parameters, ORCHIDEE outputs spanned the range of observed dynamics. Additional tests highlighted the substantial impact of incorporating Ips typographus outbreaks on carbon dynamics. Notably, the study revealed that modeling abrupt mortality events as opposed to a continuous mortality framework provides new insights into the short-term carbon sequestration potential of forests under disturbance regimes by showing that the continuous mortality framework tends to overestimate the carbon sink capacity of forests in the 20- to 50-year range in ecosystems under high disturbance pressure compared to scenarios with abrupt mortality events. This model enhancement underscores the critical need to include disturbance dynamics in land surface models to refine predictions of forest carbon dynamics in a changing climate.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Ips typographus, séquestration du carbone, modèle de simulation, changement climatique, modélisation, dynamique des populations, sécheresse, cycle du carbone, perturbation de l'écosystème, surveillance épidémiologique

Mots-clés libres : Bark beetle, Forest, Land surface model, Disturbance, Climate

Classification Agris : K70 - Dégâts causés aux forêts et leur protection
H10 - Ravageurs des plantes
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 6 (2019-) - Changement climatique

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Agences de financement hors UE : Agropolis Fondation

Programme de financement européen : H2020, Horizon Europe

Projets sur financement : (EU) Holistic management practices, modelling & monitoring for European forest soils, (EU) Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments, kNowledge, Dissemination and Outreach, (EU) Observation-based system for monitoring and verification of greenhouse gases, (EU) Prototype system for a Copernicus CO2 service

Auteurs et affiliations

• Marie Guillaume, CNRS (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Jeong Jina, Vrije Universiteit (NLD) - auteur correspondant
• Jactel Hervé, INRAE (FRA)
• Petter Gunnar, ETH (CHE)
• Cailleret Maxime, INRAE (FRA)
• McGrath Matthew J., CNRS (FRA)
• Bastrikov Vladislav, Science Partner (FRA)
• Ghattas Josefine, IPSL (FRA)
• Guenet Bertrand, CNRS (FRA)
• Lansø Anne Sofie, AU (DNK)
• Naudts Kim, Vrije Universiteit (NLD)
• Valade Aude, CIRAD-PERSYST-UMR Eco&Sols (FRA)
• Yue Chao, Northwest A&F University (CHN)
• Luyssaert Sebastiaan, Vrije Universiteit (NLD) - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/611693/)

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