Meteorological factors and the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xiamen city, China

Xu Jingwen, Yang Meng, Zhao Zeyu, Wang Mingzhai, Guo Zhinan, Zhu Yuanzhao, Rui Jia, Wang Yao, Liu Xingchun, Lin Shengnan, Luo Li, Su Yanhua, Zhao Benhua, Zhou Yulin, Frutos Roger, Chen Tianmu. 2021. Meteorological factors and the transmissibility of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Xiamen city, China. Frontiers in Medicine, 7:597375, 9 p.

Quartile : Q2, Sujet : MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Résumé : Background: As an emerging infectious disease, the prevention and control of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) poses a significant challenge to the development of public health in China. In this study, we aimed to explore the mechanism of the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD and to reveal the correlation and potential path between key meteorological factors and the transmissibility of HFMD. Methods: Combined with daily meteorological data such as average temperature, average relative humidity, average wind velocity, amount of precipitation, average air pressure, evaporation capacity, and sunshine duration, a database of HFMD incidence and meteorological factors was established. Spearman rank correlation was used to calculate the correlation between the various meteorological factors and the incidence of HFMD. The effective reproduction number (Reff) of HFMD was used as an intermediate variable to further quantify the dynamic relationship between the average temperature and Reff. Results: A total of 43,659 cases of HFMD were reported in Xiamen from 2014 to 2018. There was a significantly positive correlation between the average temperature and the incidence of HFMD (r = 0.596, p < 0.001), and a significantly negative correlation between the average air pressure and the incidence of HFMD (r = −0.511, p < 0.001). There was no correlation between the average wind velocity (r = 0.045, p > 0.05) or amount of precipitation (r = 0.043, p > 0.05) and incidence. There was a temperature threshold for HFMD's transmissibility. Owing to the seasonal transmission characteristics of HFMD in Xiamen, the temperature threshold of HFMD's transmissibility was 13.4–18.4°C and 14.5–29.3°C in spring and summer and in autumn and winter, respectively. Conclusions: HFMD's transmissibility may be affected by the average temperature; the temperature threshold range of transmissibility in autumn and winter is slightly wider than that in spring and summer. Based on our findings, we suggest that the relevant epidemic prevention departments should pay close attention to temperature changes in Xiamen to formulate timely prevention strategies before the arrival of the high-risk period.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : conditions météorologiques, transmission des maladies, fièvre aphteuse, contrôle de maladies, modèle mathématique, température, santé publique, vitesse, surveillance épidémiologique, facteur climatique, maladie infectieuse, vélocité du vent

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Chine

Agences de financement hors UE : Open Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostic, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

Projets sur financement : (CHN) Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province, (CHN) Xiamen New Coronavirus Prevention and Control Emergency Tackling Special Topic Program

Auteurs et affiliations

• Xu Jingwen, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Yang Meng, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Zhao Zeyu, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Wang Mingzhai, Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CHN)
• Guo Zhinan, Xiamen Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CHN)
• Zhu Yuanzhao, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Rui Jia, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Wang Yao, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Liu Xingchun, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Lin Shengnan, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Luo Li, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Su Yanhua, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Zhao Benhua, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Zhou Yulin, Xiamen University (CHN) - auteur correspondant
• Frutos Roger, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR INTERTRYP (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Chen Tianmu, Xiamen University (CHN) - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/613459/)

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