A Spatio-temporal model of African animal trypanosomosis risk

Dicko Ahmadou Hamady, Percoma Lassane, Sow Adama, Adam Yahaya, Mahama Charles I., Sidibé Issa, Dayo Guiguigbaza Kossigan, Thevenon Sophie, Fonta William M., Sanfo Safiétou, Djiteye Aligui, Salou Ernest Wendemanegde, Djohan Vincent, Cecchi Giuliano, Bouyer Jérémy. 2015. A Spatio-temporal model of African animal trypanosomosis risk. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 9 (7):e0003921, 20 p.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
Published version - Anglais
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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : TROPICAL MEDICINE / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : PARASITOLOGY

Abstract : Background African animal trypanosomosis (AAT) is a major constraint to sustainable development of cattle farming in sub-Saharan Africa. The habitat of the tsetse fly vector is increasingly fragmented owing to demographic pressure and shifts in climate, which leads to heterogeneous risk of cyclical transmission both in space and time. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, the most important vectors are riverine species, namely Glossina palpalis gambiensis and G. tachinoides, which are more resilient to human-induced changes than the savannah and forest species. Although many authors studied the distribution of AAT risk both in space and time, spatio-temporal models allowing predictions of it are lacking. Methodology/Principal Findings We used datasets generated by various projects, including two baseline surveys conducted in Burkina Faso and Ghana within PATTEC (Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomosis Eradication Campaign) national initiatives. We computed the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) or tsetse challenge using a range of environmental data. The tsetse apparent density and their infection rate were separately estimated and subsequently combined to derive the EIR using a “one layer-one model” approach. The estimated EIR was then projected into suitable habitat. This risk index was finally validated against data on bovine trypanosomosis. It allowed a good prediction of the parasitological status (r2 = 67%), showed a positive correlation but less predictive power with serological status (r2 = 22%) aggregated at the village level but was not related to the illness status (r2 = 2%). Conclusions/Significance The presented spatio-temporal model provides a fine-scale picture of the dynamics of AAT risk in sub-humid areas of West Africa. The estimated EIR was high in the proximity of rivers during the dry season and more widespread during the rainy season. The present analysis is a first step in a broader framework for an efficient risk management of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Trypanosomose africaine, Glossina palpalis, Glossina tachinoides, Gestion du risque, Analyse du risque, Modèle mathématique, Modèle de simulation, Entomologie, Parasitologie, Sérologie, Dynamique des populations, Distribution spatiale, Bétail, Genre humain, Surveillance épidémiologique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Afrique au sud du Sahara, Burkina Faso, Ghana

Mots-clés complémentaires : Glossina palpalis gambiensis

Classification Agris : L72 - Pests of animals
L73 - Animal diseases
U10 - Computer science, mathematics and statistics

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2014-2018) - Santé des animaux et des plantes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Dicko Ahmadou Hamady, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR CMAEE (FRA)
  • Percoma Lassane, Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (BFA)
  • Sow Adama, EISMV (SEN)
  • Adam Yahaya, Veterinary services department (GHA)
  • Mahama Charles I., Veterinary services department (GHA)
  • Sidibé Issa, CIRDES (BFA)
  • Dayo Guiguigbaza Kossigan, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR INTERTRYP (FRA)
  • Fonta William M., WASCAL (BFA)
  • Sanfo Safiétou, WASCAL (BFA)
  • Djiteye Aligui, Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign (BFA)
  • Salou Ernest Wendemanegde, CIRDES (BFA)
  • Djohan Vincent, UFHB (CIV)
  • Cecchi Giuliano, FAO (ITA)
  • Bouyer Jérémy, CIRAD-BIOS-UPR Contrôle des maladies (BFA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1913-416X

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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