Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?

Perrissin Fabert Baptiste, Pottier Antonin, Espagne Etienne, Dumas Patrice, Nadaud Franck. 2014. Why are climate policies of the present decade so crucial for keeping the 2 °C target credible?. Climatic Change, 126 (3) : 337-349.

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : Decision-makers have confirmed the long term objective of preventing a temperature increase greater than 2 °C. This paper aims at appraising by means of a cost-benefit analysis whether decision makers' commitment to meet the 2 °C objective is credible or not. Within the framework of a cost-benefit type integrated assessment model, we consider that the economy faces climate damages with a threshold at 2 °C. We run the model for a broad set of scenarios accounting for the diversity of “worldviews” in the climate debate. For a significant share of scenarios we observe that it is considered optimal to exceed the threshold. Among those “non-compliers” we discriminate ”involuntary non-compliers” who cannot avoid the exceedance due to physical constraint from ”deliberate compliers” for whom the exceedance results from a deliberate costs-benefit analysis. A second result is that the later mitigation efforts begin, the more difficult it becomes to prevent the exceedance. In particular, the number of ”deliberate non-compliers” dramatically increases if mitigation efforts do not start by 2020, and the influx of involuntary non-compliers become overwhelming f efforts are delayed to 2040. In light of these results we argue that the window of opportunity for reaching the 2 °C objective with a credible chance of success is rapidly closing during the present decade. Further delay in finding a climate agreement critically undermines the credibility of the objective.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : climat, changement climatique, politique de l'environnement, température, accord international, planification, méthode statistique

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
E14 - Économie et politique du développement

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2014-2018) - Sociétés, natures et territoires

Auteurs et affiliations

• Perrissin Fabert Baptiste, CIRED (FRA)
• Pottier Antonin, CIRED (FRA)
• Espagne Etienne, CIRED (FRA)
• Dumas Patrice, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3896-7589
• Nadaud Franck, CNRS (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/583246/)

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