Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis human infection in a urban area of Cambodia

Cappelle Julien, Duong Veasna, Pring Long, Kong Lida, Yakovleff Maud, Prasetyo Didot, Peng Borin, Choeung Rithy, Duboz Raphaël, Ong Sivuth, Sorn San, Dussart Philippe, Tarantola Arnaud, Buchy Philippe, Chevalier Véronique, De Garine-Wichatitsky Michel. 2016. Modelling the risk of Japanese encephalitis human infection in a urban area of Cambodia. In : One Health EcoHealth 2016 Congress abstracts. OHEH. Melbourne : OHEH, Résumé, 2 p. International One Health Congress. 4, Melbourne, Australie, 3 Décembre 2016/7 Décembre 2016.

Résumé : Japanese Encephalitis (JE) is the first cause of infectious encephalitis in humans in Southeast Asia, and considered a rural disease. However, the growing pig farming sector and the presence of JE mosquito vectors in peri-urban settings may lead to urban cases. We assessed the risk of JE peri-urban transmission through 2 complementary surveys performed in a Phnom Penh peri-urban area (Cambodia). We first estimated the force of infection (FOI) of JE in 2 cohorts of sentinel pigs settled in this area and using a generalized linear model. Then, we estimated the risk of JE transmission to humans associated with a pig slaughterhouse. The epidemiological system was modeled using a Susceptible Infectious Removed (SIR) model for pigs combined with a SEI model for mosquitoes, and SR for humans. The infection rate was estimated from a published pig serological dataset (Vaesna et al, 2011). The estimated FOI were 0.03192 d-1 and 0.04637 d-1. Considering a totally susceptible exposed human population, the cumulative number of new human clinical infections induced by this single slaughterhouse within 1 year would be around one. This number drastically increases with an increase of the mosquito population size and the proportion of viremic pigs transiting through the slaughterhouse. (Texte intégral)

Classification Agris : S50 - Santé humaine
L73 - Maladies des animaux
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Auteurs et affiliations

• Cappelle Julien, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (KHM) ORCID: 0000-0001-7668-1971
• Duong Veasna, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Pring Long, Royal University of Agriculture (KHM)
• Kong Lida, Royal University of Agriculture (KHM)
• Yakovleff Maud, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Prasetyo Didot, NAMRU-2 (KHM)
• Peng Borin, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Choeung Rithy, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Duboz Raphaël, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (KHM) ORCID: 0000-0002-2853-6195
• Ong Sivuth, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Sorn San, NAVRI (KHM)
• Dussart Philippe, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Tarantola Arnaud, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Buchy Philippe, Institut Pasteur du Cambodge (KHM)
• Chevalier Véronique, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA)
• De Garine-Wichatitsky Michel, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (ZWE) ORCID: 0000-0002-5438-1473

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/583300/)

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