Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach

Metras Raphaëlle, Fournié Guillaume, Dommergues Laure, Camacho Anton, Cavalerie Lisa, Mérot Philippe, Keeling Matt J., Cetre-Sossah Catherine, Cardinale Eric, Edmunds John W.. 2017. Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 11 (7):e0005767, 19 p.

Résumé : Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006–2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Virus de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift, épidémiologie, modèle mathématique, modèle de simulation, transmission des maladies, importation, introduction d'animaux, facteur climatique, facteur du milieu, végétation, analyse du risque, surveillance épidémiologique, contrôle de maladies, bétail, genre humain, zoonose, fièvre de la Vallée du Rift

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Mayotte, France

Mots-clés complémentaires : Émergence

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
S50 - Santé humaine
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2014-2018) - Santé des animaux et des plantes

Auteurs et affiliations

• Metras Raphaëlle, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
• Fournié Guillaume, Royal Veterinary College (GBR)
• Dommergues Laure, CoopADEM (MYT)
• Camacho Anton, LSHTM (GBR)
• Cavalerie Lisa, INRA (FRA)
• Mérot Philippe, Ministère de l'alimentation, de l'agriculture et de la forêt (Mayotte) (MYT)
• Keeling Matt J., University of Warwick (GBR)
• Cetre-Sossah Catherine, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (REU)
• Cardinale Eric, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (REU) ORCID: 0000-0002-3434-3541
• Edmunds John W., LSHTM (GBR)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/585599/)

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