Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape

Tennant Warren S. D., Cardinale Eric, Cetre-Sossah Catherine, Moutroifi Y.O., Le Godais Gilles, Colombi Davide, Spencer Simon E. F., Tildesley Mike J., Keeling Matt J., Charafouddine Onzade, Colizza Vittoria, Edmunds John W., Métras Raphaëlle. 2021. Modelling the persistence and control of Rift Valley fever virus in a spatially heterogeneous landscape. Nature Communications, 12 (1), 13 p.

Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Résumé : The persistence mechanisms of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a zoonotic arboviral haemorrhagic fever, at both local and broader geographical scales have yet to be fully understood and rigorously quantified. We developed a mathematical metapopulation model describing RVF virus transmission in livestock across the four islands of the Comoros archipelago, accounting for island-specific environments and inter-island animal movements. By fitting our model in a Bayesian framework to 2004–2015 surveillance data, we estimated the importance of environmental drivers and animal movements on disease persistence, and tested the impact of different control scenarios on reducing disease burden throughout the archipelago. Here we report that (i) the archipelago network was able to sustain viral transmission in the absence of explicit disease introduction events after early 2007, (ii) repeated outbreaks during 2004–2020 may have gone under-detected by local surveillance, and (iii) coordinated within-island control measures are more effective than between-island animal movement restrictions.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Virus de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift, transmission des maladies, modèle mathématique, fièvre de la Vallée du Rift, surveillance épidémiologique, épidémiologie, bétail, modèle de simulation, contrôle de maladies, Enquête pathologique, impact sur l'environnement

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Comores, Mayotte, France, Madagascar

Agences de financement européennes : European Regional Development Fund

Programme de financement européen : INTERREG V Océan Indien

Projets sur financement : (EU) Traquer les Risques Sanitaires dans l’Océan Indien avec une approche One Health

Auteurs et affiliations

• Tennant Warren S. D., University of Warwick (GBR) - auteur correspondant
• Cardinale Eric, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3434-3541
• Cetre-Sossah Catherine, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
• Moutroifi Y.O., Ministère de l'agriculture, de la pêche, de l'environnement, de l'énergie, de l'industrie et de l'artisanat (Comores) (COM)
• Le Godais Gilles, DAAF de Mayotte (MYT)
• Colombi Davide, University of Turin (ITA)
• Spencer Simon E. F., University of Warwick (GBR)
• Tildesley Mike J., University of Warwick (GBR)
• Keeling Matt J., University of Warwick (GBR)
• Charafouddine Onzade, Ministère de l'agriculture, de la pêche, de l'environnement, de l'énergie, de l'industrie et de l'artisanat (Comores) (COM)
• Colizza Vittoria, INSERM (FRA)
• Edmunds John W., LSHTM (GBR)
• Métras Raphaëlle, LSHTM (GBR)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/605902/)

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