The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China

Zhao Zeyu, Niu Yan, Luo Li, Hu Qingqing, Yang Tian-Long, Chu Meijie, Chen Qiuping, Lei Zhao, Rui Jia, Song Cheng-Long, Lin Sheng-Nan, Wang Yao, Xu Jing-Wen, Zhu Yuan-zhao, Liu Xing-Chun, Yang Meng, Huang Jie-Feng, Liu Weikang, Deng Bin, Liu Chan, Li Zhuo-Yang, Li Pei-hua, Su Yanhua, Zhao Benhua, Huang Wen-long, Frutos Roger, Chen Tianmu. 2021. The optimal vaccination strategy to control COVID-19: a modeling study in Wuhan City, China. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 10:140, 26 p.

Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : PARASITOLOGY / Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : TROPICAL MEDICINE / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Résumé : Background: Reaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China. Methods: We collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups. Results: A total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45–64 years old.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : transmission des maladies, contrôle de maladies, modèle de simulation, vaccination, covid-19, épidémiologie, vaccin, pandémie, résistance aux maladies, santé publique, coronavirus 2 du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère, modèle mathématique, facteur de risque, modélisation

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Chine

Agences de financement hors UE : Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Science and Technology Program of Fujian Province, National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China

Auteurs et affiliations

• Zhao Zeyu, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Niu Yan, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CHN)
• Luo Li, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Hu Qingqing, Utah State University (USA)
• Yang Tian-Long, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Chu Meijie, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Chen Qiuping, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
• Lei Zhao, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Rui Jia, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Song Cheng-Long, Colorado State University (USA)
• Lin Sheng-Nan, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Wang Yao, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Xu Jing-Wen, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Zhu Yuan-zhao, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Liu Xing-Chun, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Yang Meng, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Huang Jie-Feng, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Liu Weikang, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Deng Bin, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Liu Chan, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Li Zhuo-Yang, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Li Pei-hua, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Su Yanhua, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Zhao Benhua, Xiamen University (CHN)
• Huang Wen-long, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CHN) - auteur correspondant
• Frutos Roger, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR INTERTRYP (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Chen Tianmu, Xiamen University (CHN) - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/605913/)

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