Modeled impact of climate change on sugarcane yield in Réunion, a tropical island

Christina Mathias, Mézino Mickaël, Le Mézo Lionel, Todoroff Pierre. 2024. Modeled impact of climate change on sugarcane yield in Réunion, a tropical island. Sugar Tech, 8 p. Proceedings of the XXXI International Society of Sugar Cane Technologists. 31, Hyderabad, Inde, 20 Février 2023/23 Février 2023.

Résumé : Climate change is expected to have important consequences for sugarcane production due to global warming, changes in precipitation patterns, and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events. A key application of crop growth simulation models is to help understand and predict the effects of and interactions between, climate, soil, and management on crop yield. This study aimed to simulate climate change's impact on potential sugarcane yield in 11 representative locations over the sugarcane areas of Réunion Island from 2015 to 2066 using the Mosicas sugarcane crop growth model. High spatial resolution climate data for the future were obtained from the Building Resilience in the Indian Ocean project conducted by the French National Weather Service. It includes temperature and precipitation under three scenarios of the IPCC. Results showed that, despite a favorable increase in temperature, the change in precipitation patterns resulted in an average reduction in sugarcane yield by 6% in 2050 compared to the current period. Nonetheless, the impact of climate change was largely variable depending on climatic areas in the island. It was much larger at low altitudes on the West Coast (− 15%) than at high altitudes (− 4% on average). Additionally, the probability of low yields will increase even if the average was little impacted. In future research, different adaptive management scenarios will be explored to reduce the impact of climate change, particularly the change in irrigation management and harvest periods. This approach will be expanded to consider a broader view of the climate variability in the island.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, rendement des cultures, modèle de simulation, Saccharum officinarum, adaptation aux changements climatiques, Saccharum, réchauffement global, modélisation des cultures, précipitation, canne à sucre, irrigation, augmentation de rendement, évaluation de l'impact

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : La Réunion, France

Mots-clés libres : Sugarcane, Mosicas, Réunion, Climate Change

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
F01 - Culture des plantes
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 6 (2019-) - Changement climatique

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission, European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development

Agences de financement hors UE : Conseil Régional de La Réunion, Ministère français de l'Agriculture et de la l'Alimentation, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement

Projets sur financement : (EU) Compromis en Agriculture pour un Territoire Durable

Auteurs et affiliations

• Christina Mathias, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0003-3618-756X - auteur correspondant
• Mézino Mickaël, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (REU)
• Le Mézo Lionel, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (REU)
• Todoroff Pierre, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (REU)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/609315/)

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