Damage assessment from storm surge to Coastal cities: Lessons from the Miami area

Genovese Elisabetta, Hallegatte Stéphane, Dumas Patrice. 2011. Damage assessment from storm surge to Coastal cities: Lessons from the Miami area. In : Advancing geoinformation science for a changing world. Geertman Stan C.M. (ed.), Reinhardt Wolfgang P. (ed.), Toppen Fred J. (ed.). Heidelberg : Springer [Allemagne], 21-43. (Lecture notes in geoinformation and cartography) ISBN 978-3-642-19788-8 AGILE Conference. 14, Utrecht, Pays-Bas, 18 Avril 2011/21 Avril 2011.

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Résumé : Coastal cities are growing at a very rapid pace, both in population and in terms of assets; therefore, flood risk is likely to increase substantially in these areas in the absence of specific protections. In addition, great uncertainty surrounds the future evolution of hurricane intensity and sea level rise. The area of Miami represents a clear hotspot of human and economic coastal flood exposure: there are more than 5 million inhabitants in the Miami metropolitan area and the population is growing. It is also a low-lying city with most of the population living below an elevation of 10m and is located in a region where tropical cyclones hit frequently. The present study is focused on the two contiguous counties of Miami, Dade and Broward. In this analysis, we consider the impact of different storm surges predicted by the computerized model SLOSH1 and investigate flood risks with current sea level, considering different hurricane parameters (storm category and direction, wind speed, and tide level). For each impact, we apply a damage function and determine if the considered storm surges potentially lead to asset loss, considering both properties and their contents. The results show that, in absence of protections, losses will be very high for large storm surges reaching up to tens of billions USD. In the second part of the analysis, we demonstrate how the economic impact.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : cyclone, tempête, inondation, technique de prévision, analyse du risque, gestion du risque, zone côtière, ville, modèle mathématique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Floride

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
B10 - Géographie

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