Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change

Dumas Patrice, Ha-Duong Minh. 2013. Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 117 (4) : 691-710.

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : We find that approximately a quarter of the world's productive capital could be sensitive to climate; therefore, this capital faces the risk of accelerated obsolescence in a world warming by an average of 0.2 ?C per decade. We examine the question of optimal adaptation to climate change in a vintage capital growth model without uncertainty. Along the optimal pathway, adaptation is proactive with an anticipation period of approximately twenty years. While there is additional investment in this scenario compared with a no-climate-change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is low relative to the potential losses from maladaptation. Overinvestment in protection capital allows the economy to be consistently well-adapted to climate; thus, such a policy prevents transient maladaptation costs. Sensitivity analysis with an integrated assessment model suggests that costs could be ten times larger if adaptation only begins after vulnerable sectors are impacted.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, adaptation, gestion du risque, investissement, analyse coût avantage, analyse économique, perte, politique de développement, conservation des ressources, lutte antiérosion, contrôle du milieu, capital, adaptation aux changements climatiques

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
E14 - Économie et politique du développement
P36 - Érosion, conservation et récupération des sols
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

• Dumas Patrice, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3896-7589
• Ha-Duong Minh, CNRS (FRA)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/570653/)

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