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Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change

Dumas Patrice, Ha-Duong Minh. 2013. Optimal growth with adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change, 117 (4) : pp. 691-710.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact
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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Abstract : We find that approximately a quarter of the world's productive capital could be sensitive to climate; therefore, this capital faces the risk of accelerated obsolescence in a world warming by an average of 0.2 ?C per decade. We examine the question of optimal adaptation to climate change in a vintage capital growth model without uncertainty. Along the optimal pathway, adaptation is proactive with an anticipation period of approximately twenty years. While there is additional investment in this scenario compared with a no-climate-change baseline, the overall cost to adapt is low relative to the potential losses from maladaptation. Overinvestment in protection capital allows the economy to be consistently well-adapted to climate; thus, such a policy prevents transient maladaptation costs. Sensitivity analysis with an integrated assessment model suggests that costs could be ten times larger if adaptation only begins after vulnerable sectors are impacted. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Changement climatique, Adaptation, Gestion du risque, Investissement, Analyse coût avantage, Analyse économique, Perte, Politique de développement, Conservation des ressources, Lutte antiérosion, Contrôle du milieu, Capital, adaptation aux changements climatiques

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Monde

Classification Agris : P40 - Meteorology and climatology
E14 - Development economics and policies
P36 - Soil erosion, conservation and reclamation
U10 - Computer science, mathematics and statistics

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/570653/)

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