Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna

Faye Babacar, Webber Heidi, Naab Jesse B., MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, Adam Myriam, Ewert Franck, Lamers John P.A., Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Ruane Alex C., Gessner Ursula, Hoogenboom Gerrit, Boote Ken, Shelia Vakhtang, Saeed Fahad, Wisser Dominik, Hadir Sofia, Laux Patrick, Gaiser Thomas. 2018. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (3):e034014, 14 p.

https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total

Prévisualisation

Version publiée - Anglais
Utilisation soumise à autorisation de l'auteur ou du Cirad.
Faye_2018a_WestAfrica_15C_CGRA.pdf
Télécharger (3MB) | Prévisualisation

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Résumé : To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Zea mays, Sorghum bicolor, millet, rendement des cultures, changement climatique, sécurité alimentaire, adaptation aux changements climatiques, évaluation de l'impact ex-post, variété indigène, variété, fertilisation, intensification, modèle mathématique, température, réchauffement global, modèle de simulation