Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Hasegawa Toshihiro, Sands Ronald D., Brunelle Thierry, Cui Yiyun, Frank Stefan, Fujimori Shinichiro, Popp Alexander. 2020. Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals. Climatic Change, 163 : 1587-1601.

Url - éditeur : https://rdcu.be/b64QJ

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES / Quartile : Q2, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a − 11% to + 40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from − 45 to − 2 kcal person−1 day−1, leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : adaptation aux changements climatiques, sécurité alimentaire, bioénergie, gestion des ressources naturelles, réduction des émissions, réchauffement global

Mots-clés libres : Bioenergy, Food security, Food availability, Model comparison, . Integrated assessment model

Classification Agris : S01 - Nutrition humaine - Considérations générales
P06 - Sources d'énergie renouvelable
P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 3 (2019-) - Systèmes alimentaires

Auteurs et affiliations

• Hasegawa Toshihiro, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (JPN) - auteur correspondant
• Sands Ronald D., U.S. Department of Agriculture (USA)
• Brunelle Thierry, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-5350-8332
• Cui Yiyun, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (USA)
• Frank Stefan, IIASA (AUT)
• Fujimori Shinichiro, NIES (JPN)
• Popp Alexander, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/596405/)

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