Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

Rounsevell Mark D.A., Arneth Almur, Brown Calum, Cheung William W.L., Gimenez Olivier, Holman Ian, Leadley Paul, Luján Criscely, Mahévas Stéphanie, Marechaux Isabelle, Pélissier Raphaël, Verburg Peter, Vieilledent Ghislain, Wintle Brendan A., Shin Yunne-Jai. 2021. Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making. One Earth, 4 (7) : 967-985.

Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : GREEN & SUSTAINABLE SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (Science)

Résumé : There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : système d'aide à la décision, incertitude statistique, aide à la décision, gestion des ressources naturelles, changement climatique, adaptation aux changements climatiques, conservation des ressources, protection de l'environnement

Mots-clés complémentaires : système socio-écologique

Mots-clés libres : Scenarios, Uncertainty, Decision-making, Climate-change, Land-use change, Models

Classification Agris : P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 5 (2019-) - Territoires

Auteurs et affiliations

• Rounsevell Mark D.A., Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DEU) - auteur correspondant
• Arneth Almur, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DEU)
• Brown Calum, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DEU)
• Cheung William W.L., University of Edinburgh (GBR)
• Gimenez Olivier, CNRS (FRA)
• Holman Ian, Cranfield University (GBR)
• Leadley Paul, Université Paris-Saclay (FRA)
• Luján Criscely, Université Paris-Saclay (FRA)
• Mahévas Stéphanie, IFREMER (FRA)
• Marechaux Isabelle, CNRS (FRA)
• Pélissier Raphaël, IRD (FRA)
• Verburg Peter, University of Amsterdam (NLD)
• Vieilledent Ghislain, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AMAP (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1685-4997
• Wintle Brendan A., University of Melbourne (AUS)
• Shin Yunne-Jai, IRD (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/598804/)

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