Parameter estimation in a PDE model for the spatial spread of cocoa black pod disease

Nembot Fomba Christian Gaele, Ten Hoopen Gerben Martijn, Soubeyran Samuel, Roques Lionel, Ambang Zachée, Soh Takam. 2021. Parameter estimation in a PDE model for the spatial spread of cocoa black pod disease. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 83:101, 28 p.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11538-021-00934-z

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Quartile : Q2, Sujet : BIOLOGY / Quartile : Q2, Sujet : MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY

Résumé : In this paper, we develop an epidemiological model with both environmental (primary infection from the environmental spores reservoir) and direct transmission (secondary infection from an infected host to a susceptible pod). This model simulates the spatiotemporal evolution of cocoa black pod disease caused by Phytophthora megakarya. Since reliable parameter estimation is a central issue for modeling realistic biological systems, we used a mechanistic–statistical approach to estimate model parameters from real observations of a specific cocoa plot. In addition, to refine numerical simulations of the pathosystem, data describing the shade intensity all over the plot were exploited and led to increased model predictions accuracy and also highlighted a higher number of infected pods located in areas of the plot with higher shading intensity. Recommendations in terms of promoting cocoa farming in systems with low shading intensity may be evident if these results are confirmed. Our results also highlight the importance of the environmental spore reservoir in black pod disease dynamics.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Theobroma cacao, épidémiologie, modèle mathématique, maladie des plantes, modélisation

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Cameroun

Mots-clés complémentaires : Phytophthora megakarya, équation aux dérivées partielles, Cabosse

Mots-clés libres : Theobroma cacao, Phytophthora megakarya, Black pod, Modelling

Classification Agris : H20 - Maladies des plantes
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

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