Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale

Lee Cruz Larisa, Lenormand Thomas, Cappelle Julien, Caron Alexandre, De Nys Hélène, Peeters Martine, Bourgarel Mathieu, Roger François, Tran Annelise. 2021. Mapping of Ebola virus spillover: Suitability and seasonal variability at the landscape scale. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 15 (8):e0009683, 29 p.

Url - jeu de données - Dataverse Cirad : https://doi.org/10.18167/DVN1/FZANMS

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : PARASITOLOGY / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : TROPICAL MEDICINE

Résumé : The unexpected Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa in 2014 involving the Zaire ebolavirus made clear that other regions outside Central Africa, its previously documented niche, were at risk of future epidemics. The complex transmission cycle and a lack of epidemiological data make mapping areas at risk of the disease challenging. We used a Geographic Information System-based multicriteria evaluation (GIS-MCE), a knowledge-based approach, to identify areas suitable for Ebola virus spillover to humans in regions of Guinea, Congo and Gabon where Ebola viruses already emerged. We identified environmental, climatic and anthropogenic risk factors and potential hosts from a literature review. Geographical data layers, representing risk factors, were combined to produce suitability maps of Ebola virus spillover at the landscape scale. Our maps show high spatial and temporal variability in the suitability for Ebola virus spillover at a fine regional scale. Reported spillover events fell in areas of intermediate to high suitability in our maps, and a sensitivity analysis showed that the maps produced were robust. There are still important gaps in our knowledge about what factors are associated with the risk of Ebola virus spillover. As more information becomes available, maps produced using the GIS-MCE approach can be easily updated to improve surveillance and the prevention of future outbreaks.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : maladie à virus Ébola, surveillance épidémiologique, épidémiologie, Ebolavirus, cartographie, variation saisonnière, facteur de risque, évaluation du risque

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Guinée, Congo, Gabon

Mots-clés complémentaires : One Health

Mots-clés libres : Ebola, Spillover, One Health, Modelling

Classification Agris : S50 - Santé humaine

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Auteurs et affiliations

• Lee Cruz Larisa, CIRAD-ES-UMR TETIS (FRA)
• Lenormand Thomas, CNRS (FRA)
• Cappelle Julien, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-7668-1971
• Caron Alexandre, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (MOZ) ORCID: 0000-0002-5213-3273
• De Nys Hélène, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-2942-4531
• Peeters Martine, IRD (FRA)
• Bourgarel Mathieu, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (ZWE) ORCID: 0000-0001-9774-7669
• Roger François, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1573-6833
• Tran Annelise, CIRAD-ES-UMR TETIS (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-5463-332X - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/599098/)

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