Identification of key areas for wildlife surveillance by combining spatial distribution of wild birds and an epidemiological indicator of avian influenza virus circulation

Cappelle Julien, Girard Olivier, Fofana Bouba, Gaidet Nicolas, Gilbert Marius. 2011. Identification of key areas for wildlife surveillance by combining spatial distribution of wild birds and an epidemiological indicator of avian influenza virus circulation. Ecohealth, 7, suppl., Résumé, S20-S21 International One Health Congress. 1, Victoria, Australie, 14 February 2011/16 February 2011.

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Abstract : Predicting areas of disease emergence when no epidemiological data is available is essential for the implementation of efficient surveillance programs. The Inner Niger Delta (IND) in Mali is a major African wetland where >1 million Palearctic and African waterbirds congregate. Waterbirds are the main reservoir of Avian Influenza Viruses (AIV). Our objective was to model their spatial distribution in order to predict where these viruses would be more likely to circulate. We developed a generalized linear model and a boosted regression trees (BRT) model based on total aerial bird counts taken in winter over six years. We used remotely sensed environmental variables with a high temporal resolution (10 days) to predict the spatial distribution of four waterbird groups. The predicted waterbird abundances were weighted with an epidemiological indicator based on the prevalence of low pathogenic AIV reported in the literature. The BRT model had the best predictive power and allowed prediction of the high variability of waterbird distribution. Years with low flood levels showed areas with a higher risk of circulation and had better spatial distribution predictions. Each year, the model identified a few areas with a higher risk of AIV circulation. This model can be applied every 10 days to evaluate the risk of AIV emergence in wild waterbirds. By taking into account the IND's ecological variability, it allows better targeting of areas considered for surveillance. This could enhance the control of emerging diseases at a local and regional scale, especially when resources available for surveillance programs are scarce. (Texte intégral)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Influenzavirus aviaire, Surveillance épidémiologique, Maladie des animaux, Animal sauvage, Oiseau, Distribution géographique, Distribution spatiale, indicateur, avian influenza [EN], Télédétection, Modèle mathématique, Technique de prévision, Contrôle de maladies, Gestion du risque, Analyse du risque

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Mali

Mots-clés complémentaires : Émergence

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
P01 - Nature conservation and land resources
U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods

Axe stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2005-2013) - Santé animale et maladies émergentes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Cappelle Julien, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-7668-1971
  • Girard Olivier, ONCFS (FRA)
  • Fofana Bouba, Ministère des eaux et forêts (Mali) (MLI)
  • Gaidet Nicolas, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA)
  • Gilbert Marius, ULB (BEL)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (

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