Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France

Nortes Martinez David, Grelot Frédéric, Brémond Pauline, Farolfi Stefano, Rouchier Juliette. 2021. Are interactions important in estimating flood damage to economic entities? The case of wine-making in France. Natural Hazards and Earth Systems Sciences, 21 : 3057-3084.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3057-2021

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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : WATER RESOURCES / Quartile : Q2, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : Estimating flood damage, although crucial for assessing flood risk and for designing mitigation policies, continues to face numerous challenges, notably the assessment of indirect damage. It is widely accepted that damage other than direct damage can account for a significant proportion of total damage. Yet due to scarcer data sources and lack of knowledge on links within and between economic activities, indirect impacts have received less attention than direct impacts. Furthermore, attempts to grasp indirect damage through economic models have not gone below regional levels. Even though local communities can be devastated by flood events without this being reflected in regional accounts, few studies have been conducted from a microeconomic perspective at local level. What is more, the standard practices applied at this level of analysis tackle entities but ignore how they may be linked. This paper addresses these two challenges by building a novel agent-based model of a local agricultural production chain (a French cooperative wine-making system), utilized as a virtual laboratory for the ex ante estimation of flood impacts. We show how overlooking existing interactions between economic entities in production chains can result in either overestimation (double counting) or underestimation (wrong estimation of the consequences for the activity) of flood damage. Our results also reveal that considering interactions requires thorough characterization of their spatial configuration. Based on both the application of our method and the results obtained, we propose balanced recommendations for flood damage estimation at local level.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : économie agricole, inondation, viticulture, évaluation de l'impact ex-ante, évaluation du risque, dommage d'inondation, niveau de préjudice économique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : France

Mots-clés complémentaires : Évaluation des dommages, Gouvernance des chaînes de valeur

Classification Agris : E10 - Économie et politique agricoles
E16 - Économie de la production
H50 - Troubles divers des plantes

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

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