Sensitivity analysis of a crop metapopulation model

Rouger Baptiste, Goldringer Isabelle, Barbillon Pierre, Miramon Anne, Naino Jika Abdel Kader, Thomas Mathieu. 2023. Sensitivity analysis of a crop metapopulation model. Ecological Modelling, 475:110174, 14 p.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110174

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion

Résumé : CropMetaPop is a new simulation tool to model the genetic evolution of crop diversity under on-farm dynamic management. Under this type of conservation and use of varieties, seeds are resown and exchanged between farmers and the set of connected populations is described as a crop metapopulation. CropMetaPop is therefore at the interface of genetic and social processes. We used sensitivity analyses to check the behaviour of the model and to identify which parameters and range of values for them induce the most variability in the outputs. CropMetaPop was found to behave as expected. Depending on the type of locus studied (neutral or selected), the parameters related to drift or selection were those that induced the most variability in the outputs. Colonisation, migration, and network topology parameters were less influential. Looking at the detailed results will help setting the parameters to relevant values in the future utilisation of the model.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : modèle de simulation, variation génétique, modèle mathématique, génétique des populations, modélisation des cultures, évolution, marqueur génétique, dynamique des populations

Mots-clés libres : Genetic diversity, Dynamic management, Seed network, Agent-based model, Agroecology

Classification Agris : F30 - Génétique et amélioration des plantes
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 2 (2019-) - Transitions agroécologiques

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Agences de financement hors UE : Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement

Programme de financement européen : H2020

Projets sur financement : (EU) Embedding crop diversity and networking for local high quality food systems

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