Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction

Le Noë Juia, Manzoni Stefano, Abramoff Rose, Bölscher Tobias, Bruni Elisa, Cardinael Rémi, Ciais Philippe, Chenu Claire, Clivot Hugues, Derrien Delphine, Ferchaud Fabien, Garnier Patricia, Goll Daniel, Lashermes Gwenaëlle, Martin Manuel, Rasse Daniel, Rees Frédéric, Sainte-Marie Julien, Salmon Elodie, Schiedung Marcus, Schimel Josh, Wieder William, Abiven Samuel, Barré Pierre, Cécillon Lauric, Guenet Bertrand. 2023. Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction. Communications Earth and Environment, 4:158, 8 p.

Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7867131

Résumé : Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : carbone organique du sol, technique de prévision, modélisation, analyse de séries chronologiques

Mots-clés libres : Soil organic carbon, Soil organic carbon modeling

Classification Agris : P33 - Chimie et physique du sol
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
U30 - Méthodes de recherche
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 2 (2019-) - Transitions agroécologiques

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Agences de financement hors UE : Agence Nationale de la Recherche

Programme de financement européen : H2020

Projets sur financement : (EU) Holistic management prac- tices, modelling and monitoring for European forest soils, (EU) For the circular economy of tyre domain: Recycling end of life tyres into secondary raw materials for tyres and other product applications, (FRA) CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres, (FRA) Potentiel et durabilité du stockage de carbone dans les sols agricoles

Auteurs et affiliations

• Le Noë Juia, CNRS (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Manzoni Stefano, Stockholm University (SWE)
• Abramoff Rose, CNRS (FRA)
• Bölscher Tobias, Université Paris-Saclay (FRA)
• Bruni Elisa, CNRS (FRA)
• Cardinael Rémi, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (ZWE) ORCID: 0000-0002-9924-3269
• Ciais Philippe, CNRS (FRA)
• Chenu Claire, AgroParisTech (FRA)
• Clivot Hugues, INRAE (FRA)
• Derrien Delphine, INRAE (FRA)
• Ferchaud Fabien, INRAE (FRA)
• Garnier Patricia, INRAE (FRA)
• Goll Daniel, CNRS (FRA)
• Lashermes Gwenaëlle, INRAE (FRA)
• Martin Manuel, INRAE (FRA)
• Rasse Daniel, NIBIO (NOR)
• Rees Frédéric, INRAE (FRA)
• Sainte-Marie Julien, Université de Lorraine (FRA)
• Salmon Elodie, CNRS (FRA)
• Schiedung Marcus, UZH (CHE)
• Schimel Josh, UC (USA)
• Wieder William, National Center for Atmospheric Research (USA)
• Abiven Samuel, CNRS (FRA)
• Barré Pierre, CNRS (FRA)
• Cécillon Lauric, CNRS (FRA)
• Guenet Bertrand, CNRS (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/604611/)

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