Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Le Mouël Chantal, Forslund Agneta, Marty Pauline, Manceron Stéphane, Marajo-Petitzon Elodie, Caillaud Marie-Cécile, Dumas Patrice, Schmitt Bertrand. 2023. Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?. Regional Environmental Change, 23:52, 11 p.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02045-y

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.57745/WFAU6X

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region's natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA's food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, importation, adaptation aux changements climatiques, exportation, rendement des cultures, atténuation des effets du changement climatique, crise agricole, crise économique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Égypte, Proche-Orient, Maroc, Afrique orientale, Türkiye, Afrique du Nord, Algérie

Mots-clés libres : Food system, Agricultural production, Food diet, MENA, Scenarios, Biomass balance model

Classification Agris : E10 - Économie et politique agricoles
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
E71 - Commerce international

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 3 (2019-) - Systèmes alimentaires

Agences de financement hors UE : Pluriagri, Crédit Agricole

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